QUOTE(Scorched Earth Policy @ Apr 9 2008, 02:17 PM)

Bonderman has never had a season where he posted an ERA under 4.00 or a WHIP under 1.20 and has only pitched 200 innings ONCE in his career. He has very poor mechanics and it wears him down the longer he pitches through a season. Last year was not a bad luck year for Willis, all his stats since 2005 have been getting worse (earned runs, strike outs, IP). He is basically a two pitch pitcher who has benifited heavily from his deceptive wind up which isn't that deceptive anymore. He gave up 8 walks in his first appearance this year. The move from the NL to the AL won't benifit him that much either. Rogers is serviceable but thats about it at this stage in his career. I wonder if he can stay healthy the whole season too.
I never said either of them were aces, simply above average. I'll give you that Bonderman tends to wear out as the season progresses, but Willis is better than you give him credit for.
Willis' DICE, (Defense-Independent Component ERA) which is made up of defense-independent factors like strikeouts, walks, homers, innings pitched, and hit by pitches, was 3.91 last year, rounding to the nearest .01. Compare this to an accepted ace pitcher, in this case I'll use Josh Beckett, who's DICE last year was 2.84, and you'll see a sizable difference in Beckett's favor. But compare him to, say, Josh Fogg, who's a pretty average pitcher and has a DICE of 4.97 and you'll see a large difference in Willis' favor. He's no ace by any means, but he's a far above average pitcher, and Detroit's D will help him turn it around this year.
Also, just for kicks, Bonderman's DICE last year was 3.95
If you'd like, you can check my math. The formula for DICE is
3 + [13HR + 3 (BB+HBP) - 2k]/IP, where HR = home runs, BB = walks, HBP = hit by pitch, k = strikeouts, and IP = innings pitched. I got my data from baseball-reference.com.