So if Ron Paul does go the third party route either as an independent or Libertarian who will he steal the most votes from? Republican or Democrat?

Democrat, easily. No socially conservative Republican would ever vote for him.

Democrats, social conservatives don't like him and his fiscal policies are so ridiculous (the gold standard will save the economy?) that it alienates that wing of the Republican party and his isolationist views don't win him any support with neocons.

Democrats. The only thing Republicans appreciate about him is his desire for small government, which they believe they can find in a mainstream right-wing candidate. Young people who love social liberties and hate taxes will vote for Ron Paul. The youth vote, which is generally liberal, is virtually split between him and Obama.

With Paul's showing in Florida, I don't think he will make a run as a third party candidate. Despite his popularity on the net and his ability to bring in alot of money because of it, its just too difficult to run as one and when the field is narrowed down to one candidate for each party what little attention he gets now from the media and the like will pretty much all be gone.

I disagree.

This is the election to break all trends. Ron Paul is many, many times bigger than Nader was last election. He's too well-known to sweep him under the rug.

Especially with events like CNN's Youtube debates.

I disagree. Paul is popular, yes, and more so than Nader. But being well known doesn't translate to votes unless you're well known for being an actor. He'll get a portion of the youth vote, probably, but the youth always turns out in small numbers at the polls themselves. Virtually nobody over the age of 30 will be voting for Paul. Of the nation's vote, I predict 1%, 2% tops.

Yeah but is he more popular than Ross Perot? I think hes a better litmus test for a popular 3rd party run that amounted to nothing. I don't think Paul will be able to pull in close to the precentage of voters that Perot was able to bring in with his two runs which were 19% and 8%. And Im assuming he knows that and probably wouldn't run because of that.

I don't know...there are too many Democrats who would rather die than vote for Hilary Clinton in a general election.

... uh, yeah, but that sure as fuck doesn't mean they're going to vote for someone as batshit insane as Ron Paul. If Obama doesn't get the nomination (yeah right), I'd vote for McCain.

News flash

Obama probably won't win the nomination.

Neither will McCain, likely, so both of his options are kind of out. Lol

lol ok.

Well right now he is ahead in delegates. It's anyone's guess who will come out on top between Romney/McCain and Obama/Clinton as of right now. My prediction is Hilary vs McCain in another close race that'll rival the 2000 election.

You realize the only reason he won South Carolina was because 80% of the democratic vote was black there?

He has the African American and upper class liberal votes but Hilary has the Hispanic, trade unions, women, lower income liberal, and the elderly votes. Obama has much more of the youth vote than her, but despite the numbers they've been a pretty weak group with the fact so many of them never end up voting. Clinton is probably to pick up the majority of Edward's votes when he drops out (did he drop out today?). Im not saying he has no chance, he has a good one but he is far from a lock to win it at this point in the primaries.

And Clown is right about McCain not being a lock either, he is winning big states but they are only by a few percentage points. And as more and more candidates drop out it seems more likely that the votes of those candidates will go towards Romney those are enough to put him ahead of McCain. McCain's biggest selling point is that he is strong on National security, and that issue ranks second to the economy (and third to religious conservatives) and Romney APPEARS stronger on the economy.

If Paul does run a third party campaign, and gets the right amount of media coverage, I could see him taking 10% popular vote (no electoral though). He would take votes from both sides, and get some from who don't normally vote.

McCain is looking like he is going to get the nomination, though Romney shouldn't be counted out.

It really is a toss up between Hillary and Obama.

what up

I guess I got pwned there.

Nader is entering the race. Not that that matters.

Epic here.

Hopefully he won't take votes away from anyone. Everyone dumb enough to be supporting him hopefully won't show up to the polls.

He will not make a third party run. The declining amount of attention he has gotten running in the Republican primary will dry up completely if he ran as an independent/libertarian for President as he will be shut out completely from debates.

Oh, I don't know. If he did run as a 3rd party his name being in the ring alone would carry atleast 3-5% of the popular vote. Even then, I bet people write him in for republican president "just cause they can" in the General Election.
Put his name with the right sponsorships, and BANG! I bet he'd carry over 10% of the vote. Probably not much more than that, unless he came out like with lasers, and bears, and ninjas n shit. Even then not too much more than 10% of the vote would be his.

Oh, and he would be taking votes away from both sides, mainly from the dems side.

I think any chances of him making a third party run (which were slim to begin with) are gone now that he was won his seat again. I don't think he is that dumb and ego maniacal like Nader is to waste time on a presidential campaign that will probably draw no more than a couple million votes. It looks like he is going to give up on his run at the Republican nomination soon too.

He's actually said several times now that he won't run as an independent, because "he's a Republican, and the only way he'll run is on the Republican ticket."